Are Black Friday Deals Worth It? What the Price Data Shows

Are Black Friday deals worth it? Some are, but most are not the once-a-year bargain the banners suggest. When the UK consumer group Which? tracked 175 home, tech and health products for a full year around the 2024 sales, 83% were the same price or cheaper on at least one day outside the four-week Black Friday window, and not one product was at its lowest only on Black Friday itself. The real deals exist, but they cluster in a few categories and a few days, and the "was" price next to them is the part to check.

A deal is only a deal against the price the item really sold for, not the price on the tag.

Are Black Friday deals actually cheaper than the rest of the year?

Usually not by much, and often not at all. The most careful study comes from Which?, which follows daily prices for six months before and six months after the sale. Its November 2025 report, covering the 2024 event at eight large UK retailers, found:

• 83% of the 175 products were the same price or cheaper at some other point in the year.
• At the retailer with the highest figure, 94% were the same or cheaper at other times.
• One electric toothbrush was the same price or cheaper on more than 96% of days in the year.
• No product hit its lowest price only on Black Friday.

Two honest caveats. First, this is UK data; US stores were not in the study. Second, "the same price at another time" means the Black Friday price was not special, not that it was a bad price. If you needed the item anyway and the price matches its yearly low, buying is fine. What the data takes apart is the urgency: the idea that missing the day means missing the deal.

When are discounts the deepest in 2026?

For US online shopping, the biggest dataset is Adobe's. Its forecast for the 2026 season, released on 28 September 2026 and based on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, expects discounts to peak at up to 30% off listed price during Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday). Earlier in the season it expects smaller cuts: up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving, and 10% to 15% through December. Amazon's October Prime event, held on 6 and 7 October this year, was forecast to peak at 19%.

Adobe also names the best day by category. These are forecasts, not measured results, so treat them as a guide:

The pattern worth noticing: the peaks barely move from year to year. Appliances and furniture top out under 20% off listed price, which is far smaller than the 40%, 50% and 60% headlines many shoppers expect.

Should I buy now or wait for Black Friday?

It depends on the category, and on whether the October price already matches the yearly low. Here is a simple way to decide, built on the figures above:

1. Laptops, headphones, small electronics: Adobe expects these to bottom out on Cyber Monday at up to 30% off. If a price today is well short of that and you can wait six weeks, waiting is reasonable.
2. TVs, toys, appliances, furniture: expected best on Black Friday, but the forecast peak for appliances and furniture is only around 18%. A model you want at 15% off today is already close to the season's best.
3. Anything you need now: a broken washer or a dead laptop costs you more in laundromat trips or lost work than a few extra percent saves. Buy what you need when you need it.
4. Anything you did not plan to buy: skip it. A countdown clock on an item that was not on your list is the sale doing its job, not yours.

Sales are also starting earlier. Forrester checked 116 brands and retailers during this year's October Prime event and found 93 running some kind of discount. Lowe's, as one example, said its Black Friday deals begin on 29 October. When "Black Friday" lasts a month, no single day is the last chance.

How can you tell if a "was" price is fake?

US rules give you a clear test. The Federal Trade Commission's Guides Against Deceptive Pricing say a comparison to a former price is fair only when that price was a genuine one, openly offered to the public on a regular basis for a reasonably substantial period. A price raised briefly just so it can be "slashed" makes the advertised bargain a false one, according to the guides. The guides even give the example of a pen normally sold at $7.50, marked up to $10 for a few days, then advertised as reduced back to $7.50.

The same guides cover "list price" or "compare at" claims. A manufacturer's suggested price is a fair yardstick only if it is close to what stores in the area really charge in meaningful numbers. If almost nobody pays the list price, the discount from it is not real savings.

Use this five-minute check before you buy:

1. Look up the price history. A price tracker or the store's own price chart shows what the item sold for over recent months. Compare the sale price with that, not with the crossed-out number.
2. Check two other sellers. If they sell the same model for the same price without a "deal" badge, the badge is decoration.
3. Match the exact model number. Some holiday models are made for the sale, with a different number and cheaper parts, so a comparison with the regular model is not like for like.
4. Read the return terms. A low price with no returns can cost more than a slightly higher one with a fair return window.
5. Watch the seller name. Which? also warns about fakes during big sales. Check who is selling and who is shipping, and see our guide to spotting a fake deal.

Is open-box or used a better deal than Black Friday new?

Often, for the categories where Black Friday discounts are smallest. If appliances and furniture peak around 18% off a listed price that may itself be inflated, an open-box or lightly used item can beat it any week of the year, without the crowds or the countdown. The trade-off is that you need to know what the label means and what to inspect. Our guide to open box vs refurbished vs used explains the terms, and if you prefer bidding, set your number before the auction starts so the clock does not set it for you.

For shoppers in DC, Maryland and Virginia, you can browse DealsDMV's Buy Now items or live auctions any day of the year. How pickup, payment and returns work is set out on our FAQ page.

The bottom line

Black Friday is worth it for a short list: electronics and computers around Cyber Monday, toys and TVs around Black Friday, and only when the price beats the item's own recent history. For most other things, the Black Friday price is one you could have paid in spring or summer. Judge every deal by what the item really sold for, not by the crossed-out number beside it, and you will save money in any month.

Know someone who buys everything on Black Friday? Send them this before the countdown clocks start.