Winter 2026-27 Heating Bills: Who Pays More, Who Pays Less

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects homes that heat with natural gas to spend about 9% less this winter than last, while homes that heat with electricity should spend about 4% more and homes that burn heating oil about 21% more. Those are the headline numbers from its winter fuels outlook, released on 6 October 2026. Your own bill will depend on the house, so this is a map, not a forecast of your statement.

The same winter can mean a smaller bill for one neighbor and a bigger one for another, depending on what is in the basement.

Below, the numbers by fuel and by region, what changes for the Washington area, and a few ways to spend less without spending much.

The numbers by fuel

These are EIA's averages for the main heating fuel across the United States, covering November through March. They include other uses of the same fuel, such as water heating and cooking, and they are in current dollars.

EIA says natural gas supplies are comfortable, with inventories expected to enter winter 2% above the five-year average. Heating oil is the opposite. The price per gallon is up about 34% to $5.26, and EIA expects households to use about 9% less of it, so the bill still rises 21%. EIA also notes that East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below the five-year seasonal average in September.

What it means for the Washington area

EIA reports four Census regions. As far as I know, DC, Maryland and Virginia sit in the one it calls the South, and EIA's page says it does not break out the Mid-Atlantic separately, so treat these as regional averages rather than local ones.

EIA's weather assumption for the South is 2,021 heating degree days, a 1% rise on last winter, so a roughly similar winter. Nationally it expects 3,155, unchanged. It cautions that a strong El Niño could change that, and a colder or warmer season would move every number in the tables.

One more electricity detail is worth knowing. EIA's press release says wholesale electricity prices in PJM, which covers much of the Mid-Atlantic, are up 41%. EIA's outlook also explains that retail prices for gas and electricity lag wholesale prices because utility rates are set through regulation. I cannot tell you when or how much that reaches your bill, and EIA does not say either.

Why the average can mislead

EIA is clear that these are broad guides for comparing this winter with last. Actual bills depend on the size of the home, its insulation and the equipment. The agency also notes that its estimates ignore fuel bought in advance at fixed prices, and that switching fuel will not automatically lower a given household's costs.

Inflation matters too. EIA assumes about 2% inflation, so a figure has to rise by more than that to be a real increase. By that measure a 3% rise in electricity is roughly flat in real terms, while a 21% rise in heating oil is not.

Five ways to spend less without a big project

I should be clear that these tips are my own, not EIA's:

1. Heat the room you are in. A small heater in one room can cost less than raising the whole house, but only if you use it safely. Our space heater safety guide covers the three-foot rule and the cord checks.
2. Look at what is running all winter. A second refrigerator in a garage can quietly add to your bill. We cover the numbers in the used fridge guide.
3. Seal obvious drafts. Weatherstripping is cheap and quick.
4. Service your heating system before the cold arrives. It is also a safety step, as we explain in the smoke and carbon monoxide alarm checklist.
5. Check what else you can buy used. Federal price data shows furniture, televisions and used cars cheaper than a year ago, as we reported in what is cheaper and what is not. Savings elsewhere can help offset a heating bill.

You can browse what is in stock on Buy Now and read the help page for how pickup works in the DC, Maryland and Virginia area.

The bottom line

Gas heat looks cheaper this winter, electric heat looks slightly dearer and heating oil is the big increase. The South region figures are $511 for gas and $1,079 for electricity, but your house is not the average. Use these numbers to plan, not to predict, and spend your effort on the few things you control.

If you know someone on heating oil, send this to them before the first cold snap.